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Each line rebased to 100 where the shared window begins — growth from a common base, not levels.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index Federal Funds Rate
Case-Shiller Home Price IndexFederal Funds Rate Rebased to 100 at Jan 1987
1990-91 Recession2001 RecessionGlobal Financial CrisisCOVID-19 Recession100200300400500100 = Jan 198719901995200020052010201520202025Indexed to 100 · r = -0.35 over the overlap — correlation is not causation · econscout.com

Each series rebased to 100 at Jan 1987. case_shiller_national, fed_funds_rate · read from cache, latest-revised.

  • Case-Shiller Home Price Index

    Repeat-sales US home-price index (Jan 2000 = 100).

    S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US national home-price index (Jan 2000 = 100).

  • Federal Funds Rate

    The interest rate the Fed sets to steer the economy.

    Effective federal funds rate, monthly average.

Each measured on its own terms — compare the lenses, not just the lines. Full lessons → Learn

r = -0.35 weak correlation · 473 overlapping months

…and that proves nothing. Two lines moving together is not one moving the other. Almost any pair of trending economic series correlates highly — they share the same long climb of growth, prices, and population, or it is chance. r measures co-movement over this exact window, never cause. Change the range or swap a series and watch r move. Why correlation isn’t causation →