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Literacy layer

One economy, many honest instruments.

No single number captures how an economy is doing. Each measure is built to capture one thing well and miss others by design. Read across them and a fuller, more complicated picture appears than any headline gives.

Seven habits for reading the data

01

No single number is the economy.

Each gauge is built to capture one thing well and miss others by design. The skill is knowing what each one leaves out.

02

Read across, not down one number.

A strong aggregate and a strained typical household can both be true at once, because they measure different things.

Track real wages →
03

Correlation is not causation.

Two lines moving together is not one moving the other. A shared trend often traces back to a third force, or to chance.

Compare two series →
04

The first print is not the final number.

Figures get revised, sometimes by a lot. Every number on this site shows the date it is current as of.

How figures are pulled →
05

Falling inflation is not falling prices.

A lower inflation rate means prices are rising more slowly, not that they are coming down. The level stays where it climbed to.

Track inflation →
06

An average hides the spread.

A national figure is not every state or every household. Comparing places carries cost-of-living and margin-of-error caveats.

See it by state →
07

The market is not the economy.

Asset prices track the wealth of asset-holders and their expectations. That is a different question from how people are doing.

Key instruments

Each gauge below is one the dashboard tracks. The point is not to crown a winner. It is to see what each one shows, and what it leaves out.

Real GDP

The total value of goods and services produced, inflation-adjusted.

What it's good for

  • One comparable number across countries and decades.
  • Captures real production broadly.
  • Standardized, and revised on a schedule.

What it misses

  • Silent on who receives the gains.
  • Counts cleanup and rebuilding as positive.
  • Whippy quarter to quarter, and distorted by one-offs.

Latest $24.3T, Apr 2026 · FRED GDPC1 · full history →

Real GDP per Capita

National output per person, adjusted for inflation.

What it's good for

  • Puts growth on a per-person basis, so population does not flatter it.
  • Inflation-adjusted, so older figures stay comparable.
  • A standard yardstick for living standards over time.

What it misses

  • An average; it says nothing about distribution.
  • Output is not income or well-being.
  • Revised, and whippy from quarter to quarter.

Latest $70,812, Apr 2026 · FRED A939RX0Q048SBEA · full history →

Labor Productivity

How much output the economy produces per hour of work.

What it's good for

  • Over the long run, what lets living standards rise.
  • Captures gains from technology and know-how.
  • Decades of consistent measurement.

What it misses

  • Silent on who gets the gains.
  • Hard to measure in services.
  • An index, not dollars or wages.

Latest 119.4, Jan 2026 · FRED OPHNFB · full history →

Corporate Profits (% of GDP)

The share of the economy that takes the form of after-tax corporate profit.

What it's good for

  • One read on corporate profitability against the whole economy.
  • After-tax and adjusted, so it reflects economic profit.
  • Quarterly, with history back to 1947.

What it misses

  • A share of output, not a dollar amount or a growth rate.
  • An aggregate; it hides which industries or firms earn it.
  • One slice of how output is divided; it does not show the rest.

Latest 11.4%, Jan 2026 · FRED CPATAX/GDP · full history →

Industrial Production

The output of US factories, mines, and utilities, as an index.

What it's good for

  • A monthly read on the physical economy.
  • Long history, back to 1919.
  • Sensitive to the manufacturing cycle.

What it misses

  • Manufacturing is a shrinking share of a service economy.
  • An index, not dollars or jobs.
  • Weather and strikes can swing it.

Latest 102.6, Jun 2026 · FRED INDPRO · full history →

Inventory-to-Sales Ratio

How many months of sales businesses hold in inventory.

What it's good for

  • A read on the business cycle from the supply side.
  • Turning points often lead production changes.
  • Decades of monthly data.

What it misses

  • A high reading can mean stockpiling or weak demand; the direction is ambiguous.
  • Aggregates very different industries into one number.
  • Best read alongside sales and output, not alone.

Latest 1.28, May 2026 · FRED ISRATIO · full history →

Unemployment Rate

The share of people who want work and cannot find it.

What it's good for

  • Monthly and timely; it often moves first.
  • Tied closely to how people feel.
  • Intuitive and widely understood.

What it misses

  • Leaves out discouraged and underemployed workers.
  • Early job counts get revised hard.
  • Can look fine while job quality erodes.

Latest 4.2%, Jun 2026 · FRED UNRATE · full history →

U-6 Underemployment Rate

A broad jobless rate that also counts discouraged and involuntary part-time workers.

What it's good for

  • Captures slack the headline U-3 rate leaves out.
  • A fuller read on underemployment.
  • Defined consistently and reported monthly.

What it misses

  • The series starts in 1994.
  • Still one rate; it hides who is underemployed.
  • Always higher than U-3, so the two are not interchangeable.

Latest 7.9%, Jun 2026 · FRED U6RATE · full history →

Nonfarm Payrolls

The total number of jobs on US payrolls outside farming.

What it's good for

  • A broad monthly count of where the jobs are.
  • Deep history, back to 1939.
  • The figure the Fed and markets watch closely.

What it misses

  • Counts jobs, not people; two part-time jobs count twice.
  • The first print is revised for two more months.
  • Says nothing about pay or hours.

Latest 159.0M, Jun 2026 · FRED PAYEMS · full history →

Job Openings

The number of unfilled jobs employers are trying to fill.

What it's good for

  • A direct read on labor demand.
  • Paired with unemployment, it gauges how tight hiring is.
  • Comes from the monthly JOLTS survey.

What it misses

  • Survey-based, and revised.
  • A posting is not a hire; some openings are never filled.
  • The survey only began in December 2000.

Latest 7.6M, May 2026 · FRED JTSJOL · full history →

Initial Jobless Claims

New applications for unemployment benefits, filed each week.

What it's good for

  • One of the most timely labor signals, reported weekly.
  • Rises early when layoffs pick up.
  • An administrative count, not a survey.

What it misses

  • Volatile week to week; read the trend, not one print.
  • Misses workers who do not file or do not qualify.
  • Counts layoffs, not the pace of hiring.

Latest 197K, Jul 2026 · FRED ICSA · full history →

Labor Force Participation Rate

The share of working-age adults either holding a job or looking for one.

What it's good for

  • Counts people the unemployment rate sets aside, including those who stopped looking.
  • A read on the size of the workforce, not just who is hired.
  • Monthly, with history back to 1948.

What it misses

  • Demographics move it; an aging population pulls it down on its own.
  • Silent on whether the available jobs are good ones.
  • A national rate hides who is in the workforce and who is out.

Latest 61.5%, Jun 2026 · FRED CIVPART · full history →

Prime-Age Employment Rate

The share of 25-to-54-year-olds who are employed.

What it's good for

  • Strips out schooling and retirement, so demographics do not muddy it.
  • A cleaner read on the core working-age job market than the headline rate.
  • Monthly, with history back to 1948.

What it misses

  • Leaves out everyone under 25 and over 54.
  • A ratio, so it says nothing about pay or hours.
  • Cannot tell a good job from a bad one.

Latest 80.2%, Jun 2026 · FRED LNS12300060 · full history →

Old-Age Dependency Ratio

How many people 65 and older there are for every 100 of working age.

What it's good for

  • A simple read on the aging of the population.
  • A standard input to pension and budget projections.
  • Comparable across countries and decades.

What it misses

  • A head count by age, not a measure of who actually works.
  • Treats everyone 65 and older as dependent, which fewer are.
  • Annual and slow-moving; it does not track the cycle.

Latest 28.5%, Jan 2025 · FRED SPPOPDPNDOLUSA · full history →

Real Wage Growth (YoY)

Whether the typical weekly paycheck is growing faster than prices, after inflation.

What it's good for

  • Cuts through nominal raises to what a paycheck actually buys.
  • Speaks to living standards, not just national output.
  • One read on whether work is getting people ahead.

What it misses

  • A median; it hides who got the raise and who did not.
  • Swings hard when inflation moves, even if pay holds steady.
  • Says nothing about hours, benefits, or job security.

Latest +0.5%, Apr 2026 · FRED LES1252881600Q · full history →

Median Household Income

What the household in the middle of the income ladder earns in a year.

What it's good for

  • Speaks to the typical household, not the average the top end lifts.
  • A direct read on living standards over time.
  • Comparable year to year, and widely understood.

What it misses

  • Annual and slow; it lags the cycle.
  • A national median hides gaps between places and groups.
  • Pre-tax and pre-transfer; not take-home pay or wealth.

Latest $83,730, Jan 2024 · FRED MEHOINUSA646N · full history →

Federal Minimum Wage

The federal wage floor set under the Fair Labor Standards Act.

What it's good for

  • A clear, sourced policy number with deep history.
  • Its real value over time shows what inflation does to a fixed figure.
  • A reference point for the bottom of the pay scale.

What it misses

  • Many states and cities set higher floors, so few are paid exactly this.
  • Says nothing about how many workers earn at or near it.
  • Nominal unless adjusted; the level alone hides lost buying power.

Latest $7.25, Jan 2026 · FRED STTMINWGFG · full history →

CPI Inflation (YoY)

How fast consumer prices are rising compared with a year ago.

What it's good for

  • Measures the cost squeeze households feel.
  • Monthly and granular.
  • Drives Federal Reserve policy.

What it misses

  • Falling inflation is not falling prices; the level stays high.
  • One basket cannot match every household.
  • Energy swings can swamp the signal short-term.

Latest 3.5%, Jun 2026 · FRED CPIAUCSL · full history →

Gas Price

The national average price of a gallon of regular gasoline.

What it's good for

  • A price people see weekly, so it shapes how inflation feels.
  • Fast and frequent.
  • A read on energy costs that ripple into other prices.

What it misses

  • Volatile, and swung by global oil and geopolitics.
  • A national average; pump prices vary by state and taxes.
  • Nominal dollars; some of any rise is just inflation.

Latest $4.10, Jul 2026 · FRED GASREGW · full history →

Rent (CPI)

The consumer-price index for rent of a primary residence.

What it's good for

  • Tracks rent inflation for the typical renter over time.
  • Monthly, with long history.
  • Feeds the cost-of-living comparison against income.

What it misses

  • An index, not a dollar rent or a share of income.
  • A national average; local rents vary widely.
  • Captures rent charged, not what people can afford.

Latest 447, Jun 2026 · FRED CUUR0000SEHA · full history →

Federal Funds Rate

The Federal Reserve's policy rate, which sets borrowing costs across the economy.

What it's good for

  • Shows the Fed's read of the economy in one number.
  • Drives mortgage, card, and loan rates.
  • Signals whether policy is fighting inflation or weakness.

What it misses

  • A blunt tool; it hits the whole economy at once.
  • Effects arrive with long and variable lags.
  • Says nothing about who feels the rate most.

Latest 3.63%, Jun 2026 · FRED FEDFUNDS · full history →

10-Year Treasury Yield

The market yield on a 10-year US Treasury.

What it's good for

  • A live read on expected growth, inflation, and rates.
  • Anchors mortgage and long-term borrowing costs.
  • Set by buyers and sellers, not an agency.

What it misses

  • Moves on expectations, which can be wrong.
  • Blends several forces into one number.
  • Says nothing about who borrows at it.

Latest 4.67%, Jul 29, 2026 · FRED DGS10 · full history →

10Y-2Y Treasury Spread

The gap between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields, the slope of the yield curve.

What it's good for

  • A negative reading has come before most recent recessions.
  • Set by the market, distilling rate and growth expectations into one number.
  • Daily, and watched closely as a warning gauge.

What it misses

  • It has led recessions, not caused them; the lag has run from months to years.
  • It gives false alarms; not every inversion is followed by a downturn.
  • Signals roughly when, never how deep or why.

Latest +0.45 pp, Jul 30, 2026 · FRED T10Y2Y · full history →

30-Year Mortgage Rate

The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.

What it's good for

  • The price of the most common US home loan.
  • Drives affordability and housing demand.
  • Surveyed weekly, with history back to 1971.

What it misses

  • An average; the rate offered depends on credit and points.
  • It tracks the 10-year Treasury, so the Fed does not set it directly.
  • Says nothing about home prices themselves.

Latest 6.66%, Jul 2026 · FRED MORTGAGE30US · full history →

Federal Debt (% of GDP)

Federal debt held by the public, measured against the size of the economy.

What it's good for

  • Scaled by GDP, so it compares across decades.
  • A read on the federal borrowing position.
  • Excludes money the government owes itself.

What it misses

  • Leaves out the interest cost, which depends on rates.
  • Silent on what the borrowing paid for.
  • A stock of past borrowing, not the current-year gap.

Latest 122.6%, Jan 2026 · FRED GFDEGDQ188S · full history →

Federal Deficit (% of GDP)

The yearly gap between what the federal government spends and what it collects.

What it's good for

  • Scaled by GDP for comparability.
  • Shows the flow that adds to or pays down the debt.
  • Below zero is a deficit, above zero a surplus.

What it misses

  • One year only, not the accumulated debt.
  • Swings with the business cycle, not just policy.
  • Silent on which spending or taxes changed.

Latest -5.8%, Jan 2025 · FRED FYFSGDA188S · full history →

Foreign-Held Federal Debt (Share)

The portion of the publicly-held federal debt that is owed to foreign investors.

What it's good for

  • Shows how much of the debt is held outside the country.
  • Built from Treasury data, reported through FRED.
  • Quarterly Treasury figures since 1970.

What it misses

  • A share of the publicly-held debt, not its dollar size.
  • Does not separate foreign governments from private holders.
  • Silent on the maturity or terms of what is held.

Latest 30.0%, Oct 2025 · FRED FDHBFIN/FYGFDPUN · full history →

Exports

The value of goods and services US producers sell to the rest of the world.

What it's good for

  • A read on global demand for US output.
  • Ties to factory, farm, and service jobs.
  • Long history in the national accounts.

What it misses

  • Nominal dollars, so inflation lifts it on its own.
  • Silent on which industries or states gain.
  • A gross flow, not net of imports.

Latest $3.75T, Apr 2026 · FRED EXPGS · full history →

Imports

The value of goods and services US buyers purchase from abroad.

What it's good for

  • A read on US demand and on supply chains.
  • Rises with a strong consumer and a strong dollar.
  • Pairs with exports to show the balance.

What it misses

  • Nominal dollars, not inflation-adjusted.
  • More imports is not inherently good or bad.
  • Hides which products and partners are involved.

Latest $4.62T, Apr 2026 · FRED IMPGS · full history →

Trade Balance

Exports minus imports: whether the US sells more to the world than it buys.

What it's good for

  • One number for the trade position.
  • Part of how GDP is built up.
  • A long, consistent history.

What it misses

  • An accounting balance, not a win-or-lose scorecard.
  • A deficit is financed by capital inflows the number does not show.
  • Nominal dollars, with no direct read on jobs.

Latest -$0.87T, Apr 2026 · FRED NETEXP · full history →

US Dollar Index (Broad)

The dollar's value against a basket of trading-partner currencies.

What it's good for

  • One number for the dollar abroad, trade-weighted.
  • Ties to import prices and export competitiveness.
  • Reported daily by the Federal Reserve.

What it misses

  • Its value abroad, not what a dollar buys at home.
  • A stronger dollar helps some and hurts others, so it carries no verdict.
  • A basket; it hides moves against any single currency.

Latest 120.7, Jul 2026 · FRED DTWEXBGS · full history →

Retail Sales

What Americans spent at stores and restaurants in a month.

What it's good for

  • A fast read on consumer demand, which is most of the economy.
  • Monthly, and released early.
  • Broad coverage of spending.

What it misses

  • Nominal dollars, so inflation alone can lift it.
  • The advance estimate is revised.
  • Counts spending, not whether people can afford it.

Latest $769B, Jun 2026 · FRED RSAFS · full history →

Personal Saving Rate

The share of after-tax income households do not spend.

What it's good for

  • A read on household caution and financial cushion.
  • Moves with confidence and the business cycle.
  • Decades of monthly history.

What it misses

  • A residual of other estimates, so it gets revised.
  • An aggregate; it hides who is saving and who cannot.
  • A rising rate can reflect either caution or hardship.

Latest 2.7%, Jun 2026 · FRED PSAVERT · full history →

Real Disposable Income per Capita

After-tax income per person, adjusted for inflation.

What it's good for

  • Captures the income left to spend or save, net of taxes.
  • Inflation-adjusted, and per person.
  • Reported monthly.

What it misses

  • An average lifted by high earners, not the typical household.
  • Includes government transfers, so it can rise without wage gains.
  • Silent on cost-of-living differences across places.

Latest $52,669, Jun 2026 · FRED A229RX0 · full history →

Household Debt-Service Ratio

Required debt payments as a share of after-tax household income.

What it's good for

  • A read on how stretched household budgets are by debt.
  • Income-scaled, so it is comparable over time.
  • A consistent Federal Reserve estimate.

What it misses

  • An aggregate average across all households.
  • An estimate of minimum payments, not actual ones.
  • The series goes back only to 2005.

Latest 11.2%, Jan 2026 · FRED TDSP · full history →

Household Net Worth

The total net worth of US households and nonprofits, assets minus debts.

What it's good for

  • A broad read on the household balance sheet.
  • Long history, back to the early 1950s.
  • Captures wealth, which income data misses.

What it misses

  • An aggregate; it says nothing about how wealth is split.
  • Swings with stock and home prices.
  • Folds nonprofits in with households.

Latest $183.0T, Jan 2026 · FRED TNWBSHNO · full history →

Credit-Card Delinquency Rate

The share of credit-card balances that are past due.

What it's good for

  • An early sign of household financial stress.
  • Drawn from bank data, not a survey.
  • Reported quarterly, with long history.

What it misses

  • Credit cards are one slice of household debt.
  • It lags the squeeze; people fall behind only after a while.
  • Bank-reported, so it can shift with lending standards.

Latest 2.9%, Jan 2026 · FRED DRCCLACBS · full history →

Consumer Sentiment

How confident households feel about the economy and their own finances.

What it's good for

  • Captures felt experience that output data cannot.
  • Predicts spending and mood.
  • Decades of consistent monthly history.

What it misses

  • Noisy, and swayed by the news cycle.
  • Feelings are not a substitute for output data.
  • Can diverge from how people actually behave.

Latest 44.8, May 2026 · FRED UMCSENT · full history →

Housing Starts

The number of new homes builders broke ground on, at an annual rate.

What it's good for

  • A leading indicator; building responds early to rates.
  • Ties to jobs, materials, and confidence.
  • Decades of monthly history.

What it misses

  • Volatile month to month.
  • Weather-sensitive.
  • Starts are not completions; plans change.

Latest 1.43M, Jun 2026 · FRED HOUST · full history →

Median Home Sale Price

The price of the home in the middle of those sold.

What it's good for

  • A read on housing costs and household wealth.
  • Long history, back to 1963.
  • Ties to affordability, rates, and construction.

What it misses

  • The mix of homes sold shifts, so it is not a quality-constant price.
  • A national median hides hot and cold local markets.
  • Nominal dollars; inflation lifts it on its own.

Latest $410,700, Apr 2026 · FRED MSPUS · full history →

Top 1% Wealth Share

The share of all US household net worth held by the wealthiest 1%.

What it's good for

  • A single, sourced read on how concentrated wealth is.
  • From the Federal Reserve, quarterly back to 1989.
  • Captures wealth, which income and wage figures leave out.

What it misses

  • Wealth is not income or wages; it is a stock (assets minus debts), not a flow.
  • Says nothing about who is in the top 1% or how they got there.
  • Net worth at the very top is hard to measure, so estimates carry uncertainty.

Latest 31.6%, Jan 2026 · FRED WFRBST01134 · full history →

Wealth Share, Top 0.1%

The share of US household net worth held by the wealthiest 0.1% of households.

What it's good for

  • Isolates the very top, finer than the top 1%.
  • Tracks concentration at the peak over time.
  • Fed distributional accounts, quarterly.

What it misses

  • A share, not a count of people or a dollar figure.
  • Swings with asset prices, since the top holds mostly stocks.
  • Silent on how the wealth was built or taxed.

Latest 14.4%, Jan 2026 · FRED WFRBSTP1300 · full history →

Wealth Share, Bottom 50%

The share of US household net worth held by the least-wealthy half of households.

What it's good for

  • Shows how much the bottom half holds, in one number.
  • A read on wealth at the lower end, which income data misses.
  • Fed distributional accounts, quarterly since 1989.

What it misses

  • A share of the whole, not a dollar amount per household.
  • Net worth nets out debt; some here hold little or below zero.
  • Says nothing about income or mobility.

Latest 2.5%, Jan 2026 · FRED WFRBSB50215 · full history →

Stock Ownership, Top 1%

The share of corporate equities and mutual-fund shares held by the top 1%.

What it's good for

  • Shows who owns the stock market.
  • Helps explain why market gains and typical wealth diverge.
  • Fed distributional accounts.

What it misses

  • Direct holdings; stock held inside pensions is counted elsewhere.
  • A share, not a dollar amount.
  • Owning shares is not the same as realized income.

Latest 50.2%, Jan 2026 · FRED WFRBST01122 · full history →

Income Inequality (Gini)

Income inequality on one scale, from 0 (everyone equal) to 100 (one household holds it all).

What it's good for

  • One comparable number across countries and years.
  • Summarizes the whole distribution in a figure.
  • Widely used and understood.

What it misses

  • One number hides where the gap sits, at the top, middle, or bottom.
  • Pre-tax and post-tax versions differ; check which.
  • Two very different distributions can share a score.

Latest 41.8, Jan 2024 · FRED SIPOVGINIUSA · full history →

Wealth Share, Silent Gen

The share of US net worth held by the Silent generation and earlier (born before 1946).

What it's good for

  • Shows the oldest cohort handing wealth down over time.
  • The top of the generational handoff, in one line.
  • Fed distributional accounts.

What it misses

  • Falls over time as the cohort ages and shrinks, by design.
  • A share of the whole, not wealth per household.
  • Silent on inheritance flows between generations.

Latest 11.3%, Jan 2026 · FRED dfa-generation-shares · full history →

Wealth Share, Baby Boomers

The share of US net worth held by Baby Boomers (born 1946 to 1964).

What it's good for

  • Shows how much one generation holds of the whole.
  • Tracks the wealth handoff between generations over time.
  • Fed distributional accounts.

What it misses

  • Compare generations at the same age, not the same date; a younger group always starts lower.
  • A share that shifts as cohorts grow and shrink.
  • Hides the spread within a generation.

Latest 51.6%, Jan 2026 · FRED dfa-generation-shares · full history →

Wealth Share, Gen X

The share of US net worth held by Generation X (born 1965 to 1980).

What it's good for

  • The generation in the middle of the handoff.
  • Comparable over time and against other cohorts.
  • Fed distributional accounts.

What it misses

  • Read it at the same age as older cohorts, not the same date.
  • A share of the whole, not per household.
  • Silent on the gap within the generation.

Latest 26.1%, Jan 2026 · FRED dfa-generation-shares · full history →

Wealth Share, Millennials (1981+)

The share of US net worth held by Millennials and younger (born 1981 or later).

What it's good for

  • A read on what younger households have built so far.
  • Tracks their share as they age toward peak earning years.
  • Fed distributional accounts.

What it misses

  • Read it at the same age as older generations, not the same date; the cohort is younger.
  • A large group holding a small share is partly an age effect.
  • Hides the spread within the generation.

Latest 11.0%, Jan 2026 · FRED dfa-generation-shares · full history →

Wealth Share, White

The share of US household net worth held by White, non-Hispanic households.

What it's good for

  • Shows how the total is split across race and ethnicity.
  • Tracks the split over time, since 1989.
  • Fed distributional accounts.

What it misses

  • A group's share reflects its size as well as its wealth; this is the largest group.
  • A share of the total is not wealth per household.
  • Four broad groups; Asian and Native American households are not broken out.

Latest 82.9%, Jan 2026 · FRED dfa-race-shares · full history →

Wealth Share, Black

The share of US household net worth held by Black, non-Hispanic households.

What it's good for

  • A direct read on one group's slice of the total.
  • Comparable over time and against other groups.
  • Fed distributional accounts.

What it misses

  • Read it against the group's share of the population, not alone.
  • A share is not wealth per household.
  • A broad group; it hides the spread within.

Latest 3.3%, Jan 2026 · FRED dfa-race-shares · full history →

Wealth Share, Hispanic

The share of US household net worth held by Hispanic households, of any race.

What it's good for

  • Tracks one group's slice of the total over time.
  • Comparable against the other groups.
  • Fed distributional accounts.

What it misses

  • A share reflects the group's size as well as its wealth.
  • Not the same as wealth per household.
  • Defined by ethnicity, so it spans races.

Latest 2.4%, Jan 2026 · FRED dfa-race-shares · full history →

Wealth Share, Other races

The share of US household net worth held by households of other or multiple races (the Fed labels this group "Other").

What it's good for

  • Captures the households the three named groups leave out.
  • Comparable over time.
  • Fed distributional accounts.

What it misses

  • A mixed group, including Asian, Native, and multiracial households, so it hides large differences within.
  • A share, not wealth per household.
  • Its share partly tracks the group's growth in number.

Latest 11.4%, Jan 2026 · FRED dfa-race-shares · full history →

Effective Tax Rate, Lowest Fifth

The average share of income the lowest-earning fifth pay in federal taxes.

What it's good for

  • Includes payroll and excise taxes, not just income tax.
  • Comparable across groups and over time.
  • From the Congressional Budget Office.

What it misses

  • An average; it hides variation within the group.
  • Federal only; state and local taxes weigh more here.
  • Net of refundable credits, which can pull it low.

Latest 1.4%, Jan 2022 · FRED cbo-dhi-table9 · full history →

Effective Tax Rate, Top 1%

The average share of income the top 1% actually pay in federal taxes.

What it's good for

  • What is actually paid, after deductions and the mix of income types.
  • Comparable across income groups and back to 1979.
  • From the Congressional Budget Office.

What it misses

  • An average across the group, not any one household.
  • Runs below the top statutory rate, which hits only the last dollar.
  • Federal only; it leaves out state and local taxes.

Latest 31.5%, Jan 2022 · FRED cbo-dhi-table9 · full history →

Top Marginal Tax Rate

The highest-bracket federal income-tax rate set in law.

What it's good for

  • A clear, sourced policy number with a century of history.
  • Shows the top rate on paper over time.
  • A reference point in tax-policy debates.

What it misses

  • The rate on the last dollar, not what anyone pays on average.
  • Effective rates run well below it.
  • Income tax only; it ignores payroll and capital-gains rates.

Latest 37.0%, Jan 2018 · FRED IITTRHB · full history →

Outside Spending

Independent expenditures by outside groups in presidential election cycles.

What it's good for

  • Tracks money spent outside the campaigns, before and after Citizens United.
  • Traceable, FEC-reported dollars.
  • Comparable across presidential cycles.

What it misses

  • Excludes dark money, which is not disclosed by definition.
  • Spending is not the same as influence or results.
  • Presidential cycles only; midterms run lower.

Latest $4.43B, Nov 2024 · FRED schedule_e · full history →

Why they disagree

Put them together and they will not always agree. That is not a flaw in the data. It is the point. Output can rise while the typical household treads water, because they measure different things.

No instrument is the economy. Each is one honest gauge, with a blind spot built in. Reading them together, and knowing what each leaves out, is the whole skill.

Reading the eras Before you credit a president → The long form of habit three: why the economy is hard to pin on one office. The lag, the Fed and Congress, the unseen baseline, and revisions. Wages Wages across the distribution → An average hides the spread. See the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles of full-time pay on one chart, in nominal or today's dollars. Prices What a dollar buys over time → Falling inflation is not falling prices. Pick a year and follow one dollar from then to today, figured from the Consumer Price Index.