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Each series on one shared axis, in its shared unit — raw levels, not rebased.

Effective Tax Rate, Top Fifth Federal Funds Rate
Effective Tax Rate, Top FifthFederal Funds Rate Same scale · Percent
1980 Recession1981-82 Recession1990-91 Recession2001 RecessionGlobal Financial CrisisCOVID-19 Recession5%10%15%20%25%19801990200020102020Same-scale levels · r = 0.11 over the overlap — correlation is not causation · econscout.com

Raw levels on a shared axis (the series share one unit). eff_tax_rate_highest, fed_funds_rate · read from cache, latest-revised.

  • Effective Tax Rate, Top Fifth

    Average federal tax rate paid by the highest-income fifth of households.

    Average federal tax rate paid by the highest income quintile (top 20% of households), CBO.

  • Federal Funds Rate

    The interest rate the Fed sets to steer the economy.

    Effective federal funds rate, monthly average.

Each measured on its own terms — compare the lenses, not just the lines. Full lessons → Learn

r = 0.11 very weak correlation · 44 overlapping months

…and that proves nothing. Two lines moving together is not one moving the other. Almost any pair of trending economic series correlates highly — they share the same long climb of growth, prices, and population, or it is chance. r measures co-movement over this exact window, never cause. Change the range or swap a series and watch r move. Why correlation isn’t causation →