Skip to content
Explore

Compare indicators

Each line rebased to 100 where the shared window begins — growth from a common base, not levels.

Federal Debt (% of GDP) Federal Funds Rate
Federal Debt (% of GDP)Federal Funds Rate Rebased to 100 at Jan 1966
1969-70 Recession1973-75 Recession1980 Recession1981-82 Recession1990-91 Recession2001 RecessionGlobal Financial CrisisCOVID-19 Recession100200300400100 = Jan 1966197019801990200020102020Indexed to 100 · r = -0.68 over the overlap — correlation is not causation · econscout.com

Each series rebased to 100 at Jan 1966. federal_debt, fed_funds_rate · read from cache, latest-revised.

  • Federal Debt (% of GDP)

    Federal debt held by the public, measured against the size of the economy.

    Federal debt held by the public as a percentage of gross domestic product.

  • Federal Funds Rate

    The interest rate the Fed sets to steer the economy.

    Effective federal funds rate, monthly average.

Each measured on its own terms — compare the lenses, not just the lines. Full lessons → Learn

r = -0.68 moderate correlation · 241 overlapping months

…and that proves nothing. Two lines moving together is not one moving the other. Almost any pair of trending economic series correlates highly — they share the same long climb of growth, prices, and population, or it is chance. r measures co-movement over this exact window, never cause. Change the range or swap a series and watch r move. Why correlation isn’t causation →