Skip to content
Explore

Compare indicators

Each line rebased to 100 where the shared window begins — growth from a common base, not levels.

Gas Price Federal Funds Rate
Gas PriceFederal Funds Rate Rebased to 100 at Aug 1990
1990-91 Recession2001 RecessionGlobal Financial CrisisCOVID-19 Recession50100150200250300350100 = Aug 19901995200020052010201520202025Indexed to 100 · r = -0.45 over the overlap — correlation is not causation · econscout.com

Each series rebased to 100 at Aug 1990. gas_price, fed_funds_rate · read from cache, latest-revised.

  • Gas Price

    The national average price of a gallon of regular gas.

    US average retail price of regular gasoline, all formulations.

  • Federal Funds Rate

    The interest rate the Fed sets to steer the economy.

    Effective federal funds rate, monthly average.

Each measured on its own terms — compare the lenses, not just the lines. Full lessons → Learn

r = -0.45 moderate correlation · 431 overlapping months

…and that proves nothing. Two lines moving together is not one moving the other. Almost any pair of trending economic series correlates highly — they share the same long climb of growth, prices, and population, or it is chance. r measures co-movement over this exact window, never cause. Change the range or swap a series and watch r move. Why correlation isn’t causation →