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Compare indicators

Each line rebased to 100 where the shared window begins — growth from a common base, not levels.

Home Price to Income Federal Funds Rate
Home Price to IncomeFederal Funds Rate Rebased to 100 at Jan 1984
1990-91 Recession2001 RecessionGlobal Financial CrisisCOVID-19 Recession20406080100120140160100 = Jan 198419851990199520002005201020152020Indexed to 100 · r = -0.72 over the overlap — correlation is not causation · econscout.com

Each series rebased to 100 at Jan 1984. home_price_to_income, fed_funds_rate · read from cache, latest-revised.

  • Home Price to Income

    Median home price measured in years of median household income.

    Median home sale price divided by median household income (the classic affordability ratio).

  • Federal Funds Rate

    The interest rate the Fed sets to steer the economy.

    Effective federal funds rate, monthly average.

Each measured on its own terms — compare the lenses, not just the lines. Full lessons → Learn

r = -0.72 strong correlation · 41 overlapping months

…and that proves nothing. Two lines moving together is not one moving the other. Almost any pair of trending economic series correlates highly — they share the same long climb of growth, prices, and population, or it is chance. r measures co-movement over this exact window, never cause. Change the range or swap a series and watch r move. Why correlation isn’t causation →