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Each line rebased to 100 where the shared window begins — growth from a common base, not levels.

Inventory-to-Sales Ratio Federal Funds Rate
Inventory-to-Sales RatioFederal Funds Rate Rebased to 100 at Jan 1992
2001 RecessionGlobal Financial CrisisCOVID-19 Recession20406080100120140160100 = Jan 19921995200020052010201520202025Indexed to 100 · r = 0.40 over the overlap — correlation is not causation · econscout.com

Each series rebased to 100 at Jan 1992. inventory_sales_ratio, fed_funds_rate · read from cache, latest-revised.

  • Inventory-to-Sales Ratio

    Business inventories measured against monthly sales.

    Total business inventories divided by total business sales.

  • Federal Funds Rate

    The interest rate the Fed sets to steer the economy.

    Effective federal funds rate, monthly average.

Each measured on its own terms — compare the lenses, not just the lines. Full lessons → Learn

r = 0.40 moderate correlation · 413 overlapping months

…and that proves nothing. Two lines moving together is not one moving the other. Almost any pair of trending economic series correlates highly — they share the same long climb of growth, prices, and population, or it is chance. r measures co-movement over this exact window, never cause. Change the range or swap a series and watch r move. Why correlation isn’t causation →