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Each line rebased to 100 where the shared window begins — growth from a common base, not levels.

Median Personal Income Federal Funds Rate
Median Personal IncomeFederal Funds Rate Rebased to 100 at Jan 1974
1973-75 Recession1980 Recession1981-82 Recession1990-91 Recession2001 RecessionGlobal Financial CrisisCOVID-19 Recession100200300400500600700800100 = Jan 197419801990200020102020Indexed to 100 · r = -0.68 over the overlap — correlation is not causation · econscout.com

Each series rebased to 100 at Jan 1974. median_personal_income, fed_funds_rate · read from cache, latest-revised.

  • Median Personal Income

    Income of the person in the middle, including non-workers.

    Income of the person in the middle of the US distribution, including people without earnings.

  • Federal Funds Rate

    The interest rate the Fed sets to steer the economy.

    Effective federal funds rate, monthly average.

Each measured on its own terms — compare the lenses, not just the lines. Full lessons → Learn

r = -0.68 moderate correlation · 51 overlapping months

…and that proves nothing. Two lines moving together is not one moving the other. Almost any pair of trending economic series correlates highly — they share the same long climb of growth, prices, and population, or it is chance. r measures co-movement over this exact window, never cause. Change the range or swap a series and watch r move. Why correlation isn’t causation →