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Each line rebased to 100 where the shared window begins — growth from a common base, not levels.

Months' Supply of Homes Federal Funds Rate
Months' Supply of HomesFederal Funds Rate Rebased to 100 at Jan 1963
1969-70 Recession1973-75 Recession1980 Recession1981-82 Recession1990-91 Recession2001 RecessionGlobal Financial CrisisCOVID-19 Recession100200300400500600100 = Jan 1963197019801990200020102020Indexed to 100 · r = 0.34 over the overlap — correlation is not causation · econscout.com

Each series rebased to 100 at Jan 1963. months_supply, fed_funds_rate · read from cache, latest-revised.

  • Months' Supply of Homes

    Months it would take to sell the for-sale new-home inventory.

    Months it would take to sell the current for-sale inventory of new houses at the current sales pace.

  • Federal Funds Rate

    The interest rate the Fed sets to steer the economy.

    Effective federal funds rate, monthly average.

Each measured on its own terms — compare the lenses, not just the lines. Full lessons → Learn

r = 0.34 weak correlation · 762 overlapping months

…and that proves nothing. Two lines moving together is not one moving the other. Almost any pair of trending economic series correlates highly — they share the same long climb of growth, prices, and population, or it is chance. r measures co-movement over this exact window, never cause. Change the range or swap a series and watch r move. Why correlation isn’t causation →