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Each series on one shared axis, in its shared unit — raw levels, not rebased.

Mortgage Delinquency Rate Federal Funds Rate
Mortgage Delinquency RateFederal Funds Rate Same scale · Percent
1990-91 Recession2001 RecessionGlobal Financial CrisisCOVID-19 Recession2%4%6%8%10%1995200020052010201520202025Same-scale levels · r = -0.62 over the overlap — correlation is not causation · econscout.com

Raw levels on a shared axis (the series share one unit). mortgage_delinquency, fed_funds_rate · read from cache, latest-revised.

  • Mortgage Delinquency Rate

    Share of single-family mortgage balances past due.

    Share of single-family residential mortgage balances at commercial banks that are past due.

  • Federal Funds Rate

    The interest rate the Fed sets to steer the economy.

    Effective federal funds rate, monthly average.

Each measured on its own terms — compare the lenses, not just the lines. Full lessons → Learn

r = -0.62 moderate correlation · 141 overlapping months

…and that proves nothing. Two lines moving together is not one moving the other. Almost any pair of trending economic series correlates highly — they share the same long climb of growth, prices, and population, or it is chance. r measures co-movement over this exact window, never cause. Change the range or swap a series and watch r move. Why correlation isn’t causation →