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Each line rebased to 100 where the shared window begins — growth from a common base, not levels.

Real Compensation per Hour Federal Funds Rate
Real Compensation per HourFederal Funds Rate Rebased to 100 at Jul 1954
1957-58 Recession1960-61 Recession1969-70 Recession1973-75 Recession1980 Recession1981-82 Recession1990-91 Recession2001 RecessionGlobal Financial CrisisCOVID-19 Recession500100015002000100 = Jul 19541960197019801990200020102020Indexed to 100 · r = -0.31 over the overlap — correlation is not causation · econscout.com

Each series rebased to 100 at Jul 1954. real_comp_per_hour, fed_funds_rate · read from cache, latest-revised.

  • Real Compensation per Hour

    Inflation-adjusted pay per hour worked, as an index.

    Inflation-adjusted hourly compensation in the nonfarm business sector, indexed to 2017=100.

  • Federal Funds Rate

    The interest rate the Fed sets to steer the economy.

    Effective federal funds rate, monthly average.

Each measured on its own terms — compare the lenses, not just the lines. Full lessons → Learn

r = -0.31 weak correlation · 287 overlapping months

…and that proves nothing. Two lines moving together is not one moving the other. Almost any pair of trending economic series correlates highly — they share the same long climb of growth, prices, and population, or it is chance. r measures co-movement over this exact window, never cause. Change the range or swap a series and watch r move. Why correlation isn’t causation →