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Each line rebased to 100 where the shared window begins — growth from a common base, not levels.

Retail Sales Federal Funds Rate
Retail SalesFederal Funds Rate Rebased to 100 at Jan 1992
2001 RecessionGlobal Financial CrisisCOVID-19 Recession100200300400100 = Jan 19921995200020052010201520202025Indexed to 100 · r = -0.22 over the overlap — correlation is not causation · econscout.com

Each series rebased to 100 at Jan 1992. retail_sales, fed_funds_rate · read from cache, latest-revised.

  • Retail Sales

    What Americans spent at stores and restaurants each month.

    Advance estimate of US retail and food services sales.

  • Federal Funds Rate

    The interest rate the Fed sets to steer the economy.

    Effective federal funds rate, monthly average.

Each measured on its own terms — compare the lenses, not just the lines. Full lessons → Learn

r = -0.22 weak correlation · 414 overlapping months

…and that proves nothing. Two lines moving together is not one moving the other. Almost any pair of trending economic series correlates highly — they share the same long climb of growth, prices, and population, or it is chance. r measures co-movement over this exact window, never cause. Change the range or swap a series and watch r move. Why correlation isn’t causation →