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Each line rebased to 100 where the shared window begins — growth from a common base, not levels.

Household Debt-Service Ratio Labor Productivity
Household Debt-Service RatioLabor Productivity Rebased to 100 at Jan 2005
Global Financial CrisisCOVID-19 Recession708090100110120130140100 = Jan 200520052010201520202025Indexed to 100 · r = -0.85 over the overlap — correlation is not causation · econscout.com

Each series rebased to 100 at Jan 2005. debt_service_ratio, productivity · read from cache, latest-revised.

  • Household Debt-Service Ratio

    Required debt payments as a share of disposable income.

    Required household debt payments as a percentage of disposable personal income.

  • Labor Productivity

    Output produced per hour worked, as an index.

    Nonfarm business sector real output per hour of all persons, indexed to 2017=100.

Each measured on its own terms — compare the lenses, not just the lines. Full lessons → Learn

r = -0.85 strong correlation · 85 overlapping months

…and that proves nothing. Two lines moving together is not one moving the other. Almost any pair of trending economic series correlates highly — they share the same long climb of growth, prices, and population, or it is chance. r measures co-movement over this exact window, never cause. Change the range or swap a series and watch r move. Why correlation isn’t causation →