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Each line rebased to 100 where the shared window begins — growth from a common base, not levels.

Effective Tax Rate, Fourth Fifth Labor Productivity
Effective Tax Rate, Fourth FifthLabor Productivity Rebased to 100 at Jan 1979
1980 Recession1981-82 Recession1990-91 Recession2001 RecessionGlobal Financial CrisisCOVID-19 Recession80100120140160180200220100 = Jan 197919801990200020102020Indexed to 100 · r = -0.89 over the overlap — correlation is not causation · econscout.com

Each series rebased to 100 at Jan 1979. eff_tax_rate_fourth, productivity · read from cache, latest-revised.

  • Effective Tax Rate, Fourth Fifth

    Average federal tax rate paid by the fourth income fifth.

    Average federal tax rate paid by the fourth income quintile, CBO.

  • Labor Productivity

    Output produced per hour worked, as an index.

    Nonfarm business sector real output per hour of all persons, indexed to 2017=100.

Each measured on its own terms — compare the lenses, not just the lines. Full lessons → Learn

r = -0.89 strong correlation · 44 overlapping months

…and that proves nothing. Two lines moving together is not one moving the other. Almost any pair of trending economic series correlates highly — they share the same long climb of growth, prices, and population, or it is chance. r measures co-movement over this exact window, never cause. Change the range or swap a series and watch r move. Why correlation isn’t causation →