Skip to content
Explore

Compare indicators

Each line rebased to 100 where the shared window begins — growth from a common base, not levels.

Household Debt Labor Productivity
Household DebtLabor Productivity Rebased to 100 at Oct 1951
1953-54 Recession1957-58 Recession1960-61 Recession1969-70 Recession1973-75 Recession1980 Recession1981-82 Recession1990-91 Recession2001 RecessionGlobal Financial CrisisCOVID-19 Recession500010000150002000025000100 = Oct 19511960197019801990200020102020Indexed to 100 · r = 0.98 over the overlap — correlation is not causation · econscout.com

Each series rebased to 100 at Oct 1951. household_debt_total, productivity · read from cache, latest-revised.

  • Household Debt

    Total debt owed by US households and nonprofits.

    Total debt owed by US households and nonprofit organizations (Fed Z.1).

  • Labor Productivity

    Output produced per hour worked, as an index.

    Nonfarm business sector real output per hour of all persons, indexed to 2017=100.

Each measured on its own terms — compare the lenses, not just the lines. Full lessons → Learn

r = 0.98 very strong correlation · 298 overlapping months

…and that proves nothing. Two lines moving together is not one moving the other. Almost any pair of trending economic series correlates highly — they share the same long climb of growth, prices, and population, or it is chance. r measures co-movement over this exact window, never cause. Change the range or swap a series and watch r move. Why correlation isn’t causation →