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Each line rebased to 100 where the shared window begins — growth from a common base, not levels.

30-Year Mortgage Rate Labor Productivity
30-Year Mortgage RateLabor Productivity Rebased to 100 at Apr 1971
1973-75 Recession1980 Recession1981-82 Recession1990-91 Recession2001 RecessionGlobal Financial CrisisCOVID-19 Recession50100150200250100 = Apr 197119801990200020102020Indexed to 100 · r = -0.75 over the overlap — correlation is not causation · econscout.com

Each series rebased to 100 at Apr 1971. mortgage_30y, productivity · read from cache, latest-revised.

  • 30-Year Mortgage Rate

    The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.

    Average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the United States (Freddie Mac survey).

  • Labor Productivity

    Output produced per hour worked, as an index.

    Nonfarm business sector real output per hour of all persons, indexed to 2017=100.

Each measured on its own terms — compare the lenses, not just the lines. Full lessons → Learn

r = -0.75 strong correlation · 220 overlapping months

…and that proves nothing. Two lines moving together is not one moving the other. Almost any pair of trending economic series correlates highly — they share the same long climb of growth, prices, and population, or it is chance. r measures co-movement over this exact window, never cause. Change the range or swap a series and watch r move. Why correlation isn’t causation →