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Each line rebased to 100 where the shared window begins — growth from a common base, not levels.

Mortgage Debt Labor Productivity
Mortgage DebtLabor Productivity Rebased to 100 at Oct 1951
1953-54 Recession1957-58 Recession1960-61 Recession1969-70 Recession1973-75 Recession1980 Recession1981-82 Recession1990-91 Recession2001 RecessionGlobal Financial CrisisCOVID-19 Recession500010000150002000025000100 = Oct 19511960197019801990200020102020Indexed to 100 · r = 0.97 over the overlap — correlation is not causation · econscout.com

Each series rebased to 100 at Oct 1951. mortgage_debt, productivity · read from cache, latest-revised.

  • Mortgage Debt

    Home-mortgage debt outstanding, the biggest household liability.

    Home-mortgage debt outstanding for US households and nonprofits (Fed Z.1).

  • Labor Productivity

    Output produced per hour worked, as an index.

    Nonfarm business sector real output per hour of all persons, indexed to 2017=100.

Each measured on its own terms — compare the lenses, not just the lines. Full lessons → Learn

r = 0.97 very strong correlation · 298 overlapping months

…and that proves nothing. Two lines moving together is not one moving the other. Almost any pair of trending economic series correlates highly — they share the same long climb of growth, prices, and population, or it is chance. r measures co-movement over this exact window, never cause. Change the range or swap a series and watch r move. Why correlation isn’t causation →