Skip to content
Explore

Compare indicators

Each line rebased to 100 where the shared window begins — growth from a common base, not levels.

Top Marginal Tax Rate Labor Productivity
Top Marginal Tax RateLabor Productivity Rebased to 100 at Jan 1947
1948-49 Recession1953-54 Recession1957-58 Recession1960-61 Recession1969-70 Recession1973-75 Recession1980 Recession1981-82 Recession1990-91 Recession2001 RecessionGlobal Financial Crisis100200300400100 = Jan 19471950196019701980199020002010Indexed to 100 · r = -0.85 over the overlap — correlation is not causation · econscout.com

Each series rebased to 100 at Jan 1947. top_marginal_rate, productivity · read from cache, latest-revised.

  • Top Marginal Tax Rate

    The highest-bracket federal income-tax rate, where money meets policy.

    Highest-bracket statutory federal individual income-tax rate (regular tax), by year.

  • Labor Productivity

    Output produced per hour worked, as an index.

    Nonfarm business sector real output per hour of all persons, indexed to 2017=100.

Each measured on its own terms — compare the lenses, not just the lines. Full lessons → Learn

r = -0.85 strong correlation · 72 overlapping months

…and that proves nothing. Two lines moving together is not one moving the other. Almost any pair of trending economic series correlates highly — they share the same long climb of growth, prices, and population, or it is chance. r measures co-movement over this exact window, never cause. Change the range or swap a series and watch r move. Why correlation isn’t causation →