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Each line rebased to 100 where the shared window begins — growth from a common base, not levels.

10-Year Treasury Yield Labor Productivity
10-Year Treasury YieldLabor Productivity Rebased to 100 at Jan 1962
1969-70 Recession1973-75 Recession1980 Recession1981-82 Recession1990-91 Recession2001 RecessionGlobal Financial CrisisCOVID-19 Recession50100150200250300350100 = Jan 1962197019801990200020102020Indexed to 100 · r = -0.63 over the overlap — correlation is not causation · econscout.com

Each series rebased to 100 at Jan 1962. treasury_10y, productivity · read from cache, latest-revised.

  • 10-Year Treasury Yield

    What it costs the government to borrow for ten years.

    Market yield on the US 10-year Treasury at constant maturity.

  • Labor Productivity

    Output produced per hour worked, as an index.

    Nonfarm business sector real output per hour of all persons, indexed to 2017=100.

Each measured on its own terms — compare the lenses, not just the lines. Full lessons → Learn

r = -0.63 moderate correlation · 257 overlapping months

…and that proves nothing. Two lines moving together is not one moving the other. Almost any pair of trending economic series correlates highly — they share the same long climb of growth, prices, and population, or it is chance. r measures co-movement over this exact window, never cause. Change the range or swap a series and watch r move. Why correlation isn’t causation →